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Yeah blame the last franchise round, Northern (and one other toc also known for overcrowding) were let by the government on a Zero growth assumption, that is Northern recieves a tiny share of ticket revenue for running the service with everything else going back to the government, if theirs any growth the government recieves more and Northern has no financial incentive to invest in new stock (in fact a disincentive as they would never be able to repay the cost of the stock even if they had ordered it at the beginning). Of course despite the governments outlook passengers have risen by 60-70% on Northern.
Other franchises were let on a growth formula where new rolling stock could be discounted from the revenue the companies pay to the government and thus over the length of the franchise could be repayed.
A second but also significant block on the market is the Dft specifies or approves all contracts for rental or new aquistion meaning the rolling stock companies that were already being run by banks as safe and stable assets not requiring any new investment are even further stopped from investing in new stock on their own back in anticipation of demand instead of when the dft requests it.
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